Inventors:
Ananth Madhavan - New York NY, US
Artem V. Asriev - Winchester MA, US
Scott J. Kartinen - New York NY, US
Jian Yang - Sharon MA, US
Vitaly Serbin - Boston MA, US
Ian Domowitz - New York NY, US
Kenneth E. Gosier - Cambridge MA, US
Assignee:
ITG Software Solutions, Inc. - Culver City CA
International Classification:
G06Q 40/00
Abstract:
A factor risk model based method for generating risk forecasts. In one embodiment, the method includes: selecting a set of securities; selecting a set of risk factors; determining the risk factor returns; constructing a risk factor covariance matrix; constructing an idiosyncratic variance matrix; determining, for each risk factor, a factor loading coefficient for each selected security; projecting the risk factor covariance matrix into a future forecast; and projecting the idiosyncratic variance matrix into a future forecast. The factor loading coefficients, the future forecast of the risk factor covariance matrix, and the future forecast of the idiosyncratic variance matrix can be used to determine a forecast of the variance-covariance matrix for the selected securities. In some embodiments, the step of estimating factor loadings includes performing a time series regression to obtain the sensitivity of each stocks' return to variations in the factor's return.